We saw Ron Paul speak Tuesday night at a campaign fundraiser in Manhattan Beach. He was introduced by Nassim Taleb. Taleb is not just any Ron Paul supporter, but author of The Black Swan ("One of the twelve most influential books since World War II" - Sunday Times). The 2007 book explores the concept of events that, when they first occur, are unexpected by people in general, because they would be perceived as improbable at the time. This mismatch between perception and reality stems from various human habits and tendencies such as inductive reasoning, belief in experts and authorities, and fitting historical events into logical narratives that downplay their unexpectedness. Most notably, almost all major events in history have been unexpected.

After Taleb’s introduction, Ron Paul proceed to deliver a charming and entertaining talk. Afterward, during Q&A, an audience member asked Ron point-blank if he thought we could force a second round of voting at the Republican National Convention. For those not already familiar, if Romney fails to get the majority of delegate votes on the first round, it could open the door for a takeover by Ron Paul delegates. Without hesitation, Ron answered "No." He explained (as I have always maintained) that if it appears that following the rules will lead to a second round of voting, the establishment Republican shills in charge will simply change the rules on the spot, to disallow it. Many in the audience may have reacted with discouragement. However, optimist that I am, I must mention that the future is yet unknown, despite what may seem probable or inevitable right now. Perhaps the appearance of Taleb at the event is itself some sort of omen along these lines! It is interesting to consider a few other of Ron's remarks that evening. He recounted the story that when he first ran for congress, he did not believe there was any chance of him getting elected. Of course, eventually he was elected. A bit later he recounted how after he won that first election, he believed that it was essentially a fluke, and that as a result of how he would conduct himself in Congress - standing for principle, setting an exemplary voting record - he would not be re-elected. Of course, he went on to be re-elected 11 times. A bit later again, he recounted how upon winning that first election, he believed that his brief congressional term would have no real effect, and would be relegated to total obscurity, perhaps only to be mentioned years later in some historical footnote. Of course, we know how that expectation worked out: Ron is now the leader, inspiration, and icon of a new world-wide movement for peace and liberty that is ushering in the demise of the old political orders. I don't know of anyone who foresaw this turn of events - including Ron.

Ron is driving a relentless, breakneck-paced schedule of campaign events in Texas and California. After Q&A, people approached him from all sides and surrounded him for pictures, autographs, handshakes, or a few words of gratitude or encouragement. He was constantly turning around to greet fans. Eventually, every person had who wanted to, had their turn with him, and for a moment he was standing alone, with an envelope of still air around him, like an Aikido master.